As the Fantasy Premier League season progresses, many managers are looking to make key decisions ahead of the Gameweek 9 Deadline which is on a Friday night. Let us break down three key comparisons Gakpo vs. Enzo, João Pedro vs. Mateta, and Cunha vs. Mbeumo to determine who is the superior FPL pick.
Cody Gakpo (£7.5m) vs. Enzo Fernández (£6.7m)
The Dutchman benefits from playing for a clinical Liverpool attack, which consistently creates Big Chances. He is carving out a role in the front three, offering both goal threat leading Liverpool in shots and creativity. His expected Goal Involvement per 90 minutes is highly promising for a player at his price point racking up 0.59 xGI per 90. He is in sensational form scoring in his last 5 games for Club and Country, including a goal and assist against Frankfurt last night. However there is always the issue of minutes, there is a very likely chance that Ekitike starts to play at LW with Isak at Striker for Liverpool.
Enzo Fernández has seen his FPL stock soar due to a tactical shift that sees him playing in a more advanced midfield role. Critically, his status as Chelsea’s penalty taker with Palmer out on the sidelines provides a significant points ceiling. He cameback from injury scoring from the spot and was subbed off at half time due to the precaution with the scoreline being 4-1 and Ajax being down to 10 men. At a lower price than Gakpo, he offers excellent value and is a guaranteed starter.
Verdict: Enzo edges it. While Gakpo plays for a better team offensively, Enzo’s lower price, penalty responsibility, and recent strong form in a more attacking role give him a higher floor and a comparable ceiling, making him the better value proposition.
João Pedro (£7.5m) vs. Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.6m)
As you can see most players are selling Joao Pedro with Mateta emerging as their replacement.
João Pedro started the season brightly but has been in a recent slump, leading to high transfer out figures. Chelsea’s upcoming fixtures are favourable, which could be the catalyst for a return to form. The reason for his slump is his shot volume is non existent, in his last 3 Premier League matches, the Brazilian has only managed 2 shots and 0 on target which is just abysmal for any striker.
Jean-Philippe Mateta on the other hand is currently the definition of a form player and FPL differential. His underlying numbers especially shots in the box and Big Chances have been elite in recent Gameweeks. Last week he scored a Hattrick against Bournemouth and his 3.48 xG against Bournemouth is the highest xG recorded by a single player in a top 5 European league match since the statistic has been recorded. He is a more traditional centre forward who benefits directly from chances created by his teammates. The main concern is whether his high volume chance creation is sustainable against tougher opposition.
Verdict: Stay put this week. Jean-Philippe Mateta maybe the better pick right now, his red hot form and exceptional underlying goal threat are too strong to ignore. However Arsenal away is the worst entry point for any attacker and is one to consider for next week. João Pedro is a Hold if you own him, but Mateta is the clear buy for current form and higher short term upside. Make your transfer next week who knows maybe Joao Pedro comes away with a return against Sunderland at home.
Matheus Cunha (£7.9m) vs. Bryan Mbeumo (£8.0m)
Matheus Cunha has been deployed in a more central, attacking role recently, almost acting as a second striker or False Nine. This central position naturally gives him higher Expected Goals numbers and a greater direct goal threat. His pace and ability to create chances out of nothing are a valuable FPL asset. You would think this is great right, he was sensational for Wolves the reality is very different he has scored 11 points in 8 Gameweeks a return of 1.37 points per match. He is a gamble if you want to target the United fixture run.
Bryan Mbeumo has historically offered a better floor in FPL due to his creative output and, crucially, his role on set pieces. Mbeumo typically operates wider but has a proven track record of converting chances and assisting. While his goal threat might be slightly less than Cunha’s current central role which is non existent to be fair he is still managing to score points. Scoring two goals and getting one assist, he is also managing 0.55 xG per 90 almost the same as Gakpo.
Verdict: Bryan Mbeumo is the safer long term pick. He is delivering consistenly despite playing very wide in Amorim’s 3-4-3 system. However, Matheus Cunha carries higher immediate goal upside in a more central role. I would personally avoid these two and go for Fernandes or Saka if your budget permits that.
