Date: June 21, 2025
Venue: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, Illinois
Kickoff Time: 10:30 PM GMT+5:30
Phoenix Mercury Win Probability: 52.1%
Chicago Sky Win Probability: 47.9%
The Phoenix Mercury (9–4) sit fourth in the Western Conference, their health finally aligning with performance after a hard start. The Chicago Sky (3–8), conversely, are clinging to their first winless streak in franchise history at home but have displayed flashes of grit. Remember their recent 79–72 defeat to the Mystics? They made out to a 44–32 halftime lead.
This weekend, Nate Tibbetts’s squad touches down in Chicago for a major tilt that could swing momentum, with playoffs growing up for grabs for Phoenix and Chicago hunting a spark at home. The Mercury, riding a three-game winning streak, aims to fire up. Meanwhile, the Sky are still adjusting under Tyler Marsh’s new system, which takes player development first. Leaning on their summer super-rookies Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso to define this season’s identity.
Form Guide and Team Performance
Phoenix Mercury:
Over the last six games, the Phoenix Mercury have quietly put together an impressive 5–1 run. It’s a streak that hums with tactical maturity and cohesion. They’re putting up 79.6 points per game while holding opponents to 77.6, a slim margin that tells you they’re not steamrolling teams, but rather grinding out results with a veteran-savvy kind of efficiency.
The biggest statement came on the road against the reigning champs, Las Vegas Aces, where Phoenix walked away with a gritty 76–70 victory. What made it more impressive? Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas were both on managed minutes. Still, there are depth concerns. Sami Whitcomb remains out with a day-to-day designation, and Megan McConnell continues to be sidelined, which thins their backcourt rotation. But if there’s a silver lining, it’s that the Mercury are adapting, keeping the ball moving like pros who’ve seen every defensive scheme thrown at them.
Chicago Sky:
Whereas, looking at the last six outings, the Chicago Sky have gone an even 3–3, which actually feels like forward momentum, given the turbulence of their early season. They’re leaning heavily on the boards, averaging 36.3 rebounds per game, thanks in large part to Angel Reese, who’s ripping down 11.7 RPG and already carving out a presence in the paint that feels, frankly, veteran-esque for a rookie. The Sky are surrendering a hefty 86.3 points per game, ranking among the league’s bottom-tier defenses.
HC Tyler Marsh has begun to structure the team’s playbook, with the rookies running. The recent return of Courtney Vandersloot has provided a much-needed steadying hand in the backcourt, easing pressure on Reese and fellow rookie Kamilla Cardoso to create offense. The pain is that Chicago forces just 7.3 opponent turnovers per game, which is the third-worst in the league. In a WNBA landscape, that’s a glaring gap.
Key Players to Watch
Phoenix Mercury
When I look at the Phoenix Mercury, everything begins and ends with Satou Sabally. She’s averaging 18.9 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, and it’s not just the numbers; it’s the command. In their last meeting with the Sky, she casually dropped 20 and 8, looking like she could’ve had more if the game demanded it. Sabally’s that rare forward who can initiate offense, punish mismatches, and still crash the boards like a power post.
Then there’s Alyssa Thomas, who frankly operates like a Swiss Army knife with a motor that doesn’t quit. She logged a double-double with 15 assists in their 94–89 win on May 27, dictating tempo like a point forward savant. Her stats read 9.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.9 assists per game.
Not excusing Kitija Laksa, the Latvian sharpshooter came off the bench to pour in 18 points the last time these teams met, and it was her 4th-quarter barrage from deep that nearly flipped the script. She’s Phoenix’s spark plug; if she takes two dribbles, suddenly your six-point lead is gone.
Chicago Sky
Now, looking at the Chicago Sky, my eyes go straight to Ariel Atkins. She’s been quietly efficient, putting up 12.6 points per game on 42.6% shooting. When she’s on, she gives this young roster the kind of poise most teams pay for. She dropped 21 in the last head-to-head, and if the Sky want to keep pace, she’ll have to find her rhythm early and often.
Of course, Angel Reese is the engine. At just 23, she’s already the league’s rebounding queen, averaging 11.7 rebounds, and she’s contributing 11.0 points and 3.6 assists per game as well. She eats up second-chance points and creates chaos in the paint. Her scoring, 13 points per game, gives the Sky an identity.
And then, there’s Kamilla Cardoso, averaging about 11.5 points and 7.1 rebounds. Remember, she posted those numbers the last time these two squared off; she struggled to finish plays when it mattered most. If Cardoso can impose her will in the post and stay out of foul trouble, the Sky suddenly becomes a power down low.
Scoreline Prediction
Predicted Score: Phoenix Mercury 88 – 84 Chicago Sky.
Bench versatility and the Mercury’s transition game should weather Chicago’s interior storm.
Top Performer Prediction
Likely MVP would be Satou Sabally. Her combination of scoring and rebounding gives Phoenix control every time she touches the ball, a matchup nightmare for Chicago’s frontcourt.
Key Stat
Phoenix has won three straight against Chicago, dating back to late 2024, including rallying from 16 down in the last meeting, that psychological edge matters.
Leading Scorer
Best Prediction is Ariel Atkins.
Chicago’s best shooter is back in rhythm and will need to drop 20+ to keep the Sky in it. Expect her to put up a big number with the home crowd behind her.
