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Study finds Leeds United are ‘ahead of schedule’ in a bid to guarantee Premier League survival

Just like any other promoted outfit, Leeds United are prepared to do just about anything to maintain their top flight status after an absence of sixteen years.

The Marcelo Bielsa managed side, despite being one of the most entertaining sides to watch in the Premier League this season, have not been as efficient as the Argentine tactician would want them to be. Leeds have conceded the most goals in the season so far, and have proven far too easy for opponents to crack.

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After a very decent start to the season, losing their recent outing 6-2 against old rivals Manchester United, the prospect of relegation now seems like one worth pondering over for the Yorkshire-based club.

But as it stands, Leeds United are ‘ahead of schedule’ in their bid to guarantee survival if a study from Sports Analytics Center at Samford University is to be believed.

The study conducted by sports business professor Darin W. White has projected the chances of Leeds’ survival in the Premier League this season and things are looking good.

The math behind the claim

With the 20 sides divided into three categories – Top 6, Challengers and Relegation Contenders, the study takes into account data from every promoted side since 2016 that survived their first season in the Premier League.

One needs to keep in mind that, on an average, the total number of points a team should look to avoid relegation from the league is 40.

With the survivor’s data now in hand, Prof. White has compared the numbers generated (in the table above) to Leeds’ season so far and the results can be see below –

According to the calculations from Prof. White, Leeds needed to have 12.90 points at this stage of the season to ensure survival. The Whites have 17, which puts them 4.10 points ahead.

If Leeds go on to win points at the rate that they have so far, they would finish the season with 48 to 52 points.

Despite being “ahead of schedule” and on course to avoid relegation from the top flight, El Loco will be wary of letting slip of their advantage so far: and would look to march his troops to mathematical safety as soon as possible.

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By Surjit Patowary

Extremely passionate, detail-oriented when it comes to football. Obsessed with the news. Fact-checking is life!

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