Aryaman S

Why David Raya Is the Smart Long-Term FPL Pick Over Nick Pope This Season

Fantasy Premier League

The David Raya vs. Nick Pope debate was one of the hottest talking points in Fantasy Premier League circles at the start of the season.

It was the quintessential Elite Defence clean sheet specialist against the Save King on a solid, but perhaps less impenetrable, defence.

Managers vigorously argued over which option was superior: the steady, six point potential of Raya behind the formidable Arsenal defence, or the higher ceiling/higher variance of Pope, who was more likely to rack up save and bonus points.

Fast forward several Gameweeks, and the consensus among FPL managers is a sobering one for Pope owners and Raya owners alike as it seems both sides have lost either way.

Raya’s argument hinged on Arsenal’s incredible defensive solidity, leading to a high volume of clean sheets. Raya’s points mostly come in blocks of 6 points (Clean Sheet + Appearance). Arsenal’s defence is so good that he rarely faces enough shots to accumulate significant save points or Bonus Points System (BPS) points.

So far this season Raya has earned either 2 points or 6 points barring the opening fixture against Manchester United where he racked up 10 points and picked up 3 bonus, the only time he earned bonus as well. Despite keeping a clean sheet 4 games in a row, Robin Roefs has earned the same points as Raya while only keeping 4 clean sheets compared to Raya’s 7.

However the bigger issue is Raya takes up a valuable Arsenal team slot (maximum of three players). The points ceiling for an Arsenal defender like Gabriel or Timber is far higher due to the potential for attacking returns (goals, assists) and better Bonus Points accumulation than the goalkeeper. The Arsenal defenders have earned 80 and 66 points respectively compared to Raya’s 52.

Pope’s appeal lies in his historic ability to make numerous saves for Newcastle, even when conceding, thereby racking up points through volume. While Pope’s save potential remains high, Newcastle’s defensive performances have been inconsistent this season, leading to periods of both great returns and unexpected concessions.

Newcastle have kept 5 clean sheets yet Pope is only 3 points behind Raya. This is due to Pope earning save points and racking up extra points week after week. Let us take the last two weeks Newcastle conceded 1 goal against Fulham and 3 goals against West Ham and Pope still managed to earn 3 points despite getting a -1 against West Ham due to conceding more than 2 goals.

Pope started the season with a bang, 9, 4, 5 and 8 pointers in his first four matches. This shows that Pope has a better ceiling than Raya but cannot outscore the clean sheet points that Raya gets every week.

In the long run, the asset who consistently delivers their expected points with minimal maintenance is the most valuable. Raya’s role behind an elite Arsenal defence is a predictable source of clean sheets, making him a true set and forget option. He is the reliable foundation upon which an FPL squad can be built, allowing managers to focus their attention (and transfers) on the more volatile, high return attacking positions.

Ultimately, the Raya vs. Pope debate is a testament to the two main ways a goalkeeper can score, and FPL history overwhelmingly favors the Clean Sheet Specialist.

While Pope’s ceiling is higher on paper due to save potential, his floor is much lower due to defensive volatility and the risk of injuries he carries. Raya offers the highest CS probability in the league, giving him a higher effective points average over the long term.

Nick Pope is a good option however David Raya, by virtue of the dominant Arsenal defense, is the better more predictable and more reliable long term FPL pick.

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